6 thoughts on “Probability – 3

  1. Can there be a right or a wrong answer to the question “what is the probability that Virat will score a century in the next match” ?

    • Real life questions rarely have an answer in black and white – shades of grey abound 🙂 You can come up with a probability, using historical data or current form or whatever statistics you like, but it will be only that – a probability, a best guess. For example given past history or recent record, not many people would have bet on Gayle scoring a double century today…but improbable is not the same as impossible.

      However, at least one can come up with a realistic answer based on past history or other criteria, unlike the 1/2 knee-jerk answer which has no logic or reasoning.

      regards
      J

  2. I didn’t get the last line, that when the two coins are identical, then also sample s[ace will be 4 cases. but then HT, TH will be same, shouldn’t it be 3 cases only?

    • No, because it would then violate the third condition for a sample space i.e. equiprobability.

      Imagine if there are 100 white marbles and 1 black marble in a box. You pick one at random, what is the probability that it will be black? According to your logic it should be 1/2

      regards
      J

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